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Betting Sites Write Off Trump, Gives Him Huge Odds

Published

8 years ago

October 10, 2016

Hours to the second debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, betting markets lengthened the odds on a Trump victory, while the FiveThirtyEight site of well-regarded forecaster Nate Silver put the probability of a Clinton win at over 81 percent.

In the international currency exchange, the Mexican and Canadian currencies both rallied in Asia on Monday as odds of a victory by Trump for the U.S. presidential bid widened.

The Republican nominee faces the biggest crisis of his 16-month-old campaign after a tape of him making vulgar comments about women deepened fissures with establishment Republicans.

The pressure on him will be intense at the 0100 GMT (9 p.m. ET) debate at Washington University in St. Louis. CNN reported the first questions would be about the video.

Markets generally see Clinton as a known factor with middle of the road policies. There is far more uncertainty about what a Trump administration would mean for U.S. foreign policy, trade, the economy and even governance at the Federal Reserve.

In particular, Trumps’ plans to slap tariffs on imports and renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) are seen as very negative for Mexico and Canada, which is why their currencies swing when his odds of winning change.

Early Monday both currencies were on the rise with the Mexican peso up more than 1.8 percent while the dollar dipped 0.3 percent on its Canadian counterpart.